Mhedzisiro yeKutengeserana kweTinplate dzepasi rose kubva kuHondo yeKutengeserana yeTariff pakati peUSA neChina

▶ Kubva muna 2018 uye zvichiwedzera simba panosvika Kubvumbi 26, 2025, Hondo yekutengeserana yemitero pakati peUSA neChina yakakanganisa zvikuru kutengeserana kwenyika, kunyanya muindasitiri yesimbi.

▶ Sesimbi yakafukidzwa nesimbi inoshandiswa kunyanya kugadzira magaba, Tinplate yakabatwa muhondo yemitero uye matanho ekutsiva.

▶ Pano tinotaura nezvemhedzisiro yekutengeserana kwepasi rose kwetinplate, uye tichatarisa kuSoutheast Asia, zvichibva pakufambira mberi kwehupfumi nedata rekutengeserana.

Nhoroondo yeHondo yeKutengeserana

Hondo yekutengeserana yakatanga neUS ichiisa mutero wezvinhu zvekuChina, ichitaura nezvetsika dzisina kunaka dzekutengeserana uye kuba pfuma yepfungwa.

Pakazosvika gore ra2025, hurumende yaMutungamiri Donald Trump yakawedzera mitengo yezvinhu zvekuChina, zvichisvika pa145% yemitengo yezvinhu zvekuChina.

China yakatsiva nemitero yezvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika muUSA, izvo zvakaita kuti kutengeserana pakati pavo kuderere, uye izvi zvinoita kuti 3% yekutengeserana kwepasi rose muUS - China ichikwidza hondo yekutengeserana;

Kukwira uku kwakakanganisa nzira dzekutengesa zvinhu pasi rose, zvichikanganisa maindasitiri akaita se tinplate.

Mitengo yeUSA paChinese Tinplate

Tichitarisa pakurongedza, saka tichitarisa pa tinplate, Dhipatimendi rezvekutengeserana reUS rakaisa mutero wekutanga wekudzivirira marara esimbi pazvinhu zvekugadzira tin zvinobva kuChina, nemutengo wepamusoro we122.5% pazvinhu zvinotengwa kunze kwenyika, kusanganisira kubva kumugadziri mukuru weBaoshan Iron and Steel US kuti vaise mutero pasimbi dzekugadzira tin kubva kuCanada, China, Germany.

Izvi zvakatanga kushanda kubva muna Nyamavhuvhu 2023, uye zvingangoenderera mberi kusvika muna 2025. Tinotenda kuti tinplate yekuChina yave kusanyanya kukwikwidzana mumusika weUS, zvichiita kuti vatengi vatsvage dzimwe nzira uye zvichikanganisa kutengeserana kwechinyakare.

Mhinduro yeChina yeKutsiva

Mhinduro yeChina yaisanganisira kuwedzera mitengo yezvinhu zvekuAmerica, chiyero ichi chakasvika 125% panosvika Kubvumbi 2025, zvichiratidza kuti matanho ekubvisa mitero anogona kupera.

China yawedzera mutero we125% pazvinhu zvekuAmerica mukuwedzera kwekutengeserana pakati peUS neChina.

Kutsiva uku kwawedzera kuomesa kutengeserana pakati pavo, kunoderedza kutengeswa kwezvinhu kuChina neUS uye kuchakanganisa kutengeserana kwepasi rose, uye China neUnited States dzichafanira kugadzirisa mitengo yakakwira uye kutsvaga vamwe vatsva vanobva kune dzimwe nzvimbo nenyika.

Mhedzisiro Yakaita Kutengeserana Kwepasi Pose kweTinplate

Hondo yekutengeserana yakakonzera kugadziriswazve kwekutengeserana kwetinplate.

Nekukanganiswa kwekutumira zvinhu kubva kuChina kuenda kuUS, dzimwe nzvimbo, kusanganisira Southeast Asia, dzakaona mikana yekutsiva.

Hondo yekutengeserana yakakurudzirawo vagadziri vepasi rose kuti vasiyanise nzira dzekutengesa zvinhu: Nyika dzakadai seVietnam neMalaysia dzichakwezva mari mukugadzira zvinhu, pamwe nekutarisa pakugadzira mapurasitiki esimbi.

Sei? kana mitengo yakwira, kutakurwa kana kuendeswa kwemaguta makuru kucharonga nzvimbo dzayo dzekugadzira zvinhu kunzvimbo itsva, uye kumaodzanyemba kwakadziva kumabvazuva kweAsia kuchava sarudzo yakanaka, uko mutengo wevashandi wakaderera, traffic iri nyore, uye mitengo yekutengesa yakaderera.

Kumaodzanyemba kwakadziva kumabvazuva kweAsia: Mikana nematambudziko

Southeast Asia inoonekwa senzvimbo yakakosha mukutengeserana kwesimbi dzesimbi.

Nyika dzakadai seVietnam, Malaysia, neThailand dzakabatsirwa nehondo yekutengeserana.

Vagadziri pavanochinja nekutsvaga patsva nzvimbo dzemafekitori dzekudzivisa kubhadhariswa kwemitero yezvinhu zvekuChina neUS.

Semuenzaniso, Vietnam yakaona kuwedzera kwemabasa ekugadzira zvinhu, nemakambani etekinoroji achitamisa mabasa ikoko, zvichave nemigumisiro kumaindasitiri ane chekuita nesimbi dzesimbi.

Kugadzira zvinhu muVietnam kuri muhondo yekutengeserana pakati peUS neChina. Malaysia yakaonawo kukura kwekutengeserana kwezvinhu zvakasiyana-siyana, izvo zvinogona kutsigira zvisina kunanga kudiwa kwepurasitiki yekurongedza hondo yekutengeserana pakati peChina neUnited States.
Zvisinei, matambudziko achiri kuuyawo.

US yakaisa mutero pazvinhu zvakasiyana-siyana zveSoutheast Asia, zvakaita sema solar panels, nemitengo inosvika 3,521% pazvinhu zvinotengeswa kubva kuCambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, neVietnam. US Inoisa Mutero Inosvika 3,521% pazvinhu zvinotengeswa neSolar Imports kuSoutheast Asia. Kana tichitaura nezve solar imports, maitiro aya anoratidza kuti pane nzira yakakura yekudzivirira inogona kusvika ku tinplate kana zvinhu zvinotengeswa kuUS zvikawedzera. Kune rumwe rutivi, Southeast Asia inotarisana nenjodzi yekuzara nezvinhu zveChina, sezvo China ichitsvaga kugadzirisa kurasikirwa kwemusika weUS nekusimbisa hukama hwedunhu, izvo zvichawedzera kukwikwidzana kwevagadziri ve tinplate vemunharaunda. Mitero yaTrump ichasundidzira Southeast Asia pedyo neChina zvisina kugadzikana.

Migumisiro Yezvehupfumi uye Kuchinja Kwekutengeserana

Hondo yekutengeserana yakakonzera kutsauswa kwekutengeserana, nyika dzekuSoutheast Asia dzichibatsirwa nekuwedzera kwekutengeserana kunze kwenyika kuUS neChina kuti dzizadze mipata yakasiyiwa nekudzikira kwekutengeserana kwenyika mbiri idzi.

Vietnam ndiyo inonyanya kubatsirwa, nekuwedzera kwe15% kwezvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika kuUS muna 2024, nekuda kwekuchinja kwekugadzira Maonero Akaita Hondo yekutengeserana pakati peUS neChina paNyika Yose. Malaysia neThailand dzakaonawo kufambira mberi, nekutengeswa kwemotokari dzakasiyana-siyana nemotokari kuchiwedzera.

Zvisinei, IMF yakanyevera nezvekudzikira kweGDP ne0.5% mumisika iri kubuda nekuda kwekukanganiswa kwekutengeserana, zvichiratidza kusasimba kweSoutheast Asia US-China iri kuwedzera hondo yekutengeserana; kukanganisa kwayo kuSoutheast Asia.

Mhedzisiro Yakadzama paIndasitiri yeTinplate

Ruzivo rwakanangana nezvekutengeserana kwetinplate muSoutheast Asia rushoma, mafambiro akajairika anoratidza kuwedzera kwekugadzirwa uye kutengeserana.

Hondo yekutengeserana pakati peChina neUSA inogona kutamisa kugadzirwa kwetinplate kuenda kuSoutheast Asia, zvichideredza mitengo uye kuva pedyo nedzimwe misika.

Semuenzaniso, makambani emagetsi ezuva ekuChina ane mafekitori munharaunda iyi anogona kuwedzera nzira dzakafanana dzekugadzira tinplate. US inowedzera mitengo kuSoutheast Asia, sezvo magetsi ezuva achiwana mitero yekudzivirira marara anokwira kusvika pa3,521%. Zvisinei, vagadziri vemuno vanogona kukwikwidzana nemitengo yezvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika zvekuChina pamwe nemitero yeUS, izvo zvinotungamira kune mamiriro ezvinhu akaomarara.

 

Mhinduro dzeDunhu uye Maonero Eramangwana

Nyika dzekumaodzanyemba kwakadziva kumabvazuva kweAsia dziri kupindura nekusimbisa kushandira pamwe pakati penyika, sezvinoonekwa mukuedza kweASEAN kusimudzira zvibvumirano zvekutengeserana. US - China ichapindura hondo yekutengeserana uye zvichakanganisa Southeast Asia.

Kushanya kwaMutungamiriri weChina kuVietnam, Malaysia, neCambodia muna Kubvumbi 2025 kwaive nechinangwa chekusimbisa hukama hwedunhu, zvichigona kuwedzera kutengeserana kwesimbi. Kushanya kwaXi Kunoratidza Dambudziko reSoutheast Asia muHondo yeKutengeserana yeUS neChina. Zvisinei, ramangwana redunhu iri rinoenderana nekushandisa mitero yeUS uye kuchengetedza kugadzikana kwehupfumi pakati pekusava nechokwadi kwepasi rose.

Nyika	Mikana	Matambudziko
Vhetinamu	Kuwedzera kwekugadzirwa kwezvinhu, kukura kwekutengesa kunze kwenyika	Mitero inogona kutengeswa muUS, makwikwi
Marazhiya	Kukwira kwekutengesa kunze kwenyika kwe semiconductor, kusiyanisa	Mitero yeUS, zvinhu zveChina zvazara
Tairendi	Shanduko mukugadzira, kutengeserana kwenharaunda	Njodzi yemitero yeUS, kumanikidzwa kwehupfumi
Kambodhiya	Nzvimbo yekugadzira zvinhu iri kusimukira	Mitero yakakwira yeUS (semuenzaniso, solar, 3,521%)